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The  Global Energy Price Forecasting and Modelling Forum 
20-21-22 November 2024, Amsterdam, Netherlands       

 

The Global Artificial Intelligence and O
Uniper, Germany

Joern Higgen SVP Market Analytics Uniper, Germany

EDP

Ricardo Covas Quantitative Analysis EDP, Portugal

Enel

Flavio Russo Head of Modeling and Analytics Enel, Italy

National Grid, UK

Tracey Walker Head of UK Market Fundamentals National Grid, UK

Vattenfall

Matthias Klapper Senior Market Analyst Vattenfall, Germany

CEZ Group, Romania

Aurel Mindrican Director of Trading and Market Statistics ÄŒEZ Group, Romania

Centrica

Jan Gibbert Regulatory Manager Centrica, UK

HEP d.d  Croatia

Ivan Androcec Director of Strategy and Development Department HEP d.d., Croatia

Fortum

Jussi Mäkelä Head of Trading Analysis Fortum, Finland

50Hertz

Dr. Johannes Henkel Head of Energy Market Development 50Hertz, Germany

Epex Spot, France

David Assaad Head of European Market Integration and Coupling Epex Spot, France

CREG, Belgium

Clara Verhelst Advisor CREG, Belgium

CNTEE Transelectrica, Romania

Catalin Chimirel Manager for Energy Efficiency and New Technologies CNTEE Transelectrica, Romania

ISland Oil Holding

Georges Panaghoulis Head of Price Risk and Hedging Island Oil Ltd, UK

OMI Group, Spain

Rafael Gómez-Elvira Director Public Affairs Marketing/Chairman OMI Group, Spain

ERG SpA,

Carmela Milluzzo Head of Short Term Analysis ERG SpA, Italy

London Business School, UK

Derek Bunn Professor of Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations London Business School, UK

ESEM

Wennerström Stefan Vice President Esem, Sweden

Amprion GmbH, Germany

Dr. Andreas Kindsmüller Manager Control Reserves and Balancing Amprion GmbH, Germany

EFET, Belgium

Jerome le Page Manager for European Electricity Markets EFET, Belgium

Agenda

20-21 May 2020

09:00

Meet & Greet

10:40

Coffee Break

13:00

Lunch

14:00

Networking

16:00

Q & A Session

3

DAY

24

SPEAKERS

100

PARTICIPANTS
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Stock Market Chart

INTRODUCTION

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is the process of using mathematical models to predict what

electricity prices will be in the future. EPF is an extremely important factor in the utilities’ decision

making process.

There is short-, medium- and long-term forecasting.

Short-term forecasting, generally involves horizon from a few minutes up to a few days

ahead and is of prime importance in day-to-day market operations.

Medium-term forecasting, from a few days to a few months ahead, is generally preferred for

balance sheet calculations, risk management and derivatives pricing.

Long-term forecasting, with lead times measures in months, quarters or years,

concentrates on investment profitability analysis and planning.

Short industry description and background to the topic

Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers (electricity

generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market. They meet on

the power exchange. Electricity generators disclose the amount of power they are willing to sell for

a given price and demanders disclose the amount of power they are prepared to buy for a given

price. As electricity cannot be stored economically, the electricity market has a highly volatile

character. That is why electricity price forecasting has to be based on reliable models that take

into account all major factors affecting the price.

Glossary

Wholesale Market: Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers

(electricity generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market.

Retail Market: Retailers purchase significant volumes of electricity in the wholesale market and

sell packages of smaller volumes to its customers.

A spot price is the current price in the marketplace at which a given asset such as a security,

commodity or currency can be bought or sold for immediate delivery.

A forward price is the predetermined delivery price for an asset decided upon by the long (the

buyer) and the short (the seller) to be paid at predetermined date in the future.

Price volatility

Liquidity

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